Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.310968 5.048394 5.863503 6.829849 7.942739 9.182688 10.667365
2025-09-28 3.089335 4.056198 5.240265 6.790327 8.758670 11.166804 14.327537
2025-10-05 2.574172 3.713458 5.230422 7.381469 10.333615 14.220478 19.698773
2025-10-12 2.113182 3.308072 5.018021 7.613726 11.417351 16.741670 24.701331
2025-10-19 1.782276 2.998913 4.853687 7.841132 12.472927 19.304572 30.040192
2025-10-26 1.490996 2.680938 4.602977 7.869623 13.197830 21.431833 34.956083
2025-11-02 1.217128 2.331080 4.231478 7.628392 13.437141 22.809387 38.841700
2025-11-09 0.981206 1.996905 3.822746 7.246588 13.368253 23.652774 41.924751
2025-11-16 0.828471 1.783563 3.585180 7.114970 13.686892 25.138271 46.187548
2025-11-23 0.711707 1.616148 3.401603 7.046633 14.094348 26.797595 50.893125
2025-11-30 0.655178 1.560422 3.421229 7.360854 15.235467 29.855877 58.357462
2025-12-07 0.578119 1.445302 3.302396 7.380932 15.809119 31.926437 64.212208
2025-12-14 0.508662 1.336429 3.184726 7.397697 16.401050 34.136646 70.643745
2025-12-21 0.447680 1.235649 3.069189 7.404006 16.976861 36.386364 77.406116
2025-12-28 0.438351 1.260515 3.240072 8.063047 19.004407 41.717370 90.759010
2026-01-04 0.403727 1.213287 3.235136 8.321820 20.195946 45.467157 101.280521
2026-01-11 0.372286 1.167999 3.227191 8.571205 21.394107 49.344761 112.425283
2026-01-18 0.333511 1.093902 3.134963 8.602990 22.096660 52.231906 121.747513
2026-01-25 0.286763 0.986019 2.936933 8.341164 22.074879 53.532391 127.768096
2026-02-01 0.240754 0.869319 2.694321 7.926302 21.627270 53.828410 131.592713
2026-02-08 0.211073 0.797218 2.562303 7.783257 21.832499 55.629297 138.960588
2026-02-15 0.187443 0.739457 2.461207 7.708974 22.201988 57.846270 147.481701
2026-02-22 0.178667 0.731079 2.505480 8.050552 23.698500 62.894328 163.077053